Risk Analysis
The risk analysis is based on the simulations and evaluates them using different methods. Based on the market analysis and our benchmarks, we can derive all variables in the simulations in a well-founded manner. However, the simulations are designed for 15 years, which poses a challenge when dealing with estimation inaccuracies.
The risk analysis serves to check the resilience of the business cases. Ranges of the most important key figures are determined in which a case will develop. In this way, the risks can be better assessed and the effects of a wide variety of influences can be shown. An enormous help for the assessment of a project development or investment.
Monte Carlo Analysis
Based on empirically derived or estimated distributions of relevant variables in the model, the simulation is run through thousands of scenarios. By looking at the scenarios in aggregate, risk profiles can be created for a business case.
Sensitivity analysis
By changing exactly one variable in the simulation, the change in the most important key figures is shown. Using sensitivity analysis, the leverage effects in the system can be determined and quantified.